Don’t look down

Will the Bucks eclipse the Suns? Some meaningful anticipations ahead of Game 5:

The Bucks sit two wins from a championship. They must win two of three games, with only one chance to play at home and the other two coming in the hostile heat of Phoenix. It is a dizzying moment in franchise history, if you pause to take it in. Lose two of three and the question is “will they ever?” — win two of three and the question becomes “how many will they?” The difference is profound. It’s easy to get caught up in that, and slip. Don’t.

Game 5 is tomorrow at the — holy shit, the name literally just changed — the newly christened, and this ain’t a joke: “footprint center.” It’s supposed to be capitalized, but I’m good. Anyway, game 5 tomorrow at, well, there, is as pivotal as any #pivotalgame5 could ever be. The Bucks have resurged from an 0–2 hole to tie the series 2–2. A 3–2 lead could be a breaking point for Phoenix, who would face the challenge of winning two straight — including a game 6 in Milwaukee, after free-falling in the middle of the biggest series since their last six-game Finals defeat. Then again, the whole beauty of the seven-game series is its many twists and turns, with each game leading you to conclude that the winning team will win the rest of the necessary games to win the series. That rarely happens! But, the Bucks know firsthand that when a young team gets its first gut punch, it can blow a 2–0 lead and lose in six.

Here’s what to look for in Game 5:

The ultimate Chris Paul game.

If ever a player was chemically inclined to have his finest performance of his career in the last non-elimination game of his first Finals, it was Chris Paul. Of all the dignitaries fighting for status in this delightful series, Paul is the headlining star. Sure, Giannis Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP, and Devin Booker is a rising star drawing comparisons to Kobe Bryant, but Paul is the old legend, one of the most skilled point guards ever, and is on the cusp of his white whale.

Paul’s playoff history is littered with a few things: defeats, hand injuries, failures in crunch time — but also: surges of excellence in the moments just before crunch time. His most epic collapse — one of five consecutive seasons in which Paul’s team lost after holding series leads — was in 2014 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. In a #pivotalgame5 the Thunder were down 15 in the fourth quarter and came back to win in the closing seconds thanks to consecutive Paul turnovers sandwiching a Paul foul on a Russell Westbrook 3-pointer. This was his most egregious sequence and it came after Paul hit a clutch three to put his Clippers up 7 with 49 seconds left. That’s the key to Paul’s failures: He’s incredibly clutch, until he’s not.

Chris Paul’s point totals from Game 6 of the conference finals till now are: 41, 32, 23, 19, 10. That’s a substantial decline, and one the Suns know they need to remedy. The Bucks have dogged Paul by denying him a free stroll up the court. I’m not basketball savvy enough to tell you how that effects Paul specifically: maybe the Bucks are making him initiate the offense from somewhere on the court where he’s less comfortable, maybe the mental and physical energy expended getting around an All-NBA defender’s token pressure is enough to slow him down and disrupt his sense of rhythm. Either way it’s worked, but it doesn’t seem like a final solution.

Paul’s injuries have taught him not to take anything for granted, so he’s likely not thinking “it’s our first run, we made it farther than expected.” It’s more likely his approach is “this is the best shot I’ve ever had at a title, and possibly my last.” In other words, Paul’s trend of declining point totals will not continue. Expect Paul to come with a burst of effort, attacking the ball pressure and driving to create and score. His series-high for free-throw attempts sits at 4 (game 1, of course). I’d bet one of my feet he tops that tomorrow.

Finally, if Chris Paul is the Chris Paul of legend, this is his moment. It’ll ultimately be on Booker and Ayton to finish this thing off in Game 6 or Game 7, but Paul could have a career-defining game. The Bucks will need to be ready for anything.

Bridges and Johnson a point of emphasis.

In Games 1 and 2, Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson combined for 24 and 35 points, respectively. In Games 3 and 4, the young wings totaled 18 and 17 points. That trend must also reverse. Johnson’s athleticism and Bridges’ shooting touch (skills I emphasize though Johnson shoots well and Bridges is plenty athletic) mean you really can’t sleep on Phoenix’s fourth and fifth options. When these wings are not scoring, it’s typically due to a poor distribution plan. They can’t make shots unless they get them, and they only get shots if Booker and Paul can find them. If Paul is to have the game of his life — that will mean setting up these two whippersnappers for as much success as they can stomach.

Who dominates for Milwaukee?

Antetokounmpo had dominating performances in Games 2 (in which he got no help) and 3 (in which he got requisite help), and then Khris Middleton turned in a 40-point performance in Game 4 complete with several clutch buckets. Obviously Milwaukee needs one of those guys to put up 35+ to hang with the high-octane Suns. But who? Giannis dipped his production to 26 points (and a couple amazing defensive plays), so a bounce-back is possible, but if Middleton can score 40, does that become the plan? The conundrum here is one of reliability. Middleton is far more skilled than Antetokounmpo as a ball-handler and shot-maker. So situationally, he’s often more reliable. In a tight game, Middleton’s poised handling and decision-making are incredibly useful. But Middleton has had off games in this series — three of them, in fact. Antetokounmpo has been the main scorer, and has been dominant in the paint, and is at times unstoppable. He’s a liability when he puts the ball on the floor, and when he’s fouled to go to free-throw line (Did you notice, by the way, Giannis turning obvious shooting fouls into side-outs by passing after the whistle, rather than shooting? He did this three times.), and when he’s left alone outside the 3-point line, baited into a bad shot. For Middleton, there are no bad shots. There are just sometimes strings of missed ones. When Middleton’s off, he’s off; when Giannis is “off,” he can more easily crank himself up, get closer to the rim, and score anyway.

The truth is, Milwaukee has both options and can go back and forth among them. Additionally, much of what dictates this isn’t who Milwaukee, as a team, trusts more, but rather playing what the Suns’ defense gives them. Dedication to stopping Antetokounmpo has generally been found successful. The Suns showed more of that and Game 4 and got Middletoned. It’d be a decent bet to assume Middleton won’t get 40 again in Game 5, the way Antetokounmpo racked up consecutive 40-point games.

And then there’s Jrue Holiday. Outside of a 21-point performance in Game 3 in which he shot 8-of-14 from the field and 5-of-10 from three, Holiday is 1-of-12 on 3-point shots in the series and has been generally ineffective on offense even though he’s stayed involved moving the ball and is locked-in defensively. He is 11-of-29 on two-point field goals in the series, though he is averaging 8 assists and 6 rebounds. Anyways, if the Bucks get a higher degree of offensive production from Holiday, say, 25 points, that would greatly alleviate the pressure on Antetokounmpo and Middleton, and also flummox the Suns’ game plan somewhat, as they will be hell-bent on limiting Antetokounmpo and Middleton.

Is it just a home court thing?

For the Suns, the hope is that, yes, both arenas are crazy environments and it turns out it’s harder to play basketball in front of 20,000 people that hate you than it is to do so in front of 20,000 people who love you. As the series heads to the footprint center, or the center of the footprint, as it were, an easy flash point to look at is Bobby Portis. In Milwaukee, Portis hustles, he gets the crowd excited, he charges up the team and helps build momentum. In Phoenix, well, Portis hustles. Portis played 5 minutes in Game 2. That jumped to 18 and 20 in Games 3 and 4, respectively. Is Budenholzer actually playing Portis more for the home crowd? Accordingly, Brook Lopez’s minutes have dropped from 29 minutes a game in the conference finals to 23 in the final round. including 21 and 19 in the two home games. The Bucks were -13 in Lopez’s 19 minutes of Game 4 — that was the lowest plus-minus of any Buck by 10 points. In Game 1 it was the lowest on the team, and Game 3 it was lowest among the starters (Pat Connaughton was lower). Ayton has exploited an athleticism advantage over Lopez.

Bigs aside, the Suns looked sharper at home and the Bucks looked a lot duller on the road. The trouble is, only one team can win this series if the home crowds leave happy every night, and it ain’t the Bucks. The Bucks faced a similar situation in Brooklyn, where the home team won the first four games. The Bucks had a healthy lead through much of that Game 5, but squandered it and wouldn’t win in Brooklyn until Game 7’s feverish overtime conclusion. (Feverish as in, everyone playing seemed hindered by severe fevers by the end of the game.)

No idea what to expect from Booker here.

Devin Booker has had three 40-point games in these playoffs. The first two were followed up by point totals of 21 and 20. That sample size isn’t sufficient to declare he’s coming in with 19. He did follow a 31-point game 2 with a 10-point game 3. At this point Booker’s production is all over the place, elite at times, solid at times, absent at times. A 42-point performance in a losing effort would seem to mess with your approach to the next game, either you have to come harder, or maybe the key is to back off and let your teammates create and get in rhythm. The Suns have won with all types of Booker performances. While earlier I contended that a massive game fits in with the Chris Paul legacy, Booker has an opportunity to override Paul and have a legacy game himself. Young players are more fun in part because of their unpredictability.

The zoomed-out view: It’s gonna be close.

This series has been touted as a close series, despite three of its four games ending with double-digit point differentials in games that were practically wire-to-wire. However, I’m not disagreeing. These teams have looked great in their respective wins. When Phoenix is rolling, hope seems lost for Milwaukee. In Milwaukee’s wins, you start to recognize Phoenix’s youth and inexperience may be playing a part in a larger story for their team. It could be soundly argued that if it weren’t for injuries, neither of these teams would have emerged from their respective conferences. Basketball storytelling is amazing, in that these overarching narratives like functional organisms consist of little 15-second possessions that pack together like cells to create something bigger. The Suns have the savviest veteran, Chris Paul. The Bucks have the most dominant player, Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Suns have the most dynamic scorer, Devin Booker. The Bucks have the subtle excellence of Khris Middleton. The Bucks have the solidifying presence of Jrue Holiday. The Suns have the youth and strength of DeAndre Ayton. Jae Crowder. P.J. Tucker. Mikal Bridges. Cam Johnson. Brook Lopez. Pat Connaughton. Cam Payne. Bobby Portis. Torrey Craig. The motivating words of Monty Williams. The slow and steady adjustments of Mike Budenholzer. Every presence is a counterpunch. There are three more rounds, barring an early knockout. Enjoy the fight.