Ten things I *Love* (or just noticed) from Sunday’s comeback win over New Orleans
How it started:
How it’s going:
Week 3 felt really important. The home debut of Jordan Love, starting quarterback, was going about as terribly as one could bear to imagine, and then all of a sudden, the right things happened. They happened just in time, and the Packers had their most signature comeback win since coming back from down 17–0 at halftime to beat Chicago in the opening game of the 2018 season.
There are many takeaways from yesterday’s game. Here are 10 of mine:
1. Total atonement for last week’s collapse.
Green Bay held a 24–12 lead entering the fourth quarter of Week 2 vs. Atlanta, and let the Falcons run all over them while amassing 7 (!) yards of offense in the quarter, eventually losing 25–24.
On the Packer Force Podcast this week, we discussed what would be required for this week to constitute a “bounce-back” game from that loss. After making ridiculously specific asks like “Jordan Love has to throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter to either tie the game, take the lead, or turn a one-score lead into a two-score lead” (wait a minute…), we landed in a place of accepting that this week wasn’t about bouncing back from the Atlanta loss because the Saints presented different challenges: No Bijan Robinson, but a potent deep passing game with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, a more experienced and aggressive defense, and different scheme on both sides of the ball.
And then the Packers went out and completely inversed their previous week’s performance, struggling through three quarters before coming to life late. And yes, Jordan Love threw a touchdown pass to take the lead in the fourth quarter. The defense did not allow New Orleans to run all over them, holding the Saints to two critical fourth-quarter three-and-outs that preceded two Packers scoring drives, broken up by a five-play drive, which was answered with a Packers touchdown. Meanwhile, Jordan Love in the fourth quarter went 7–16 for 104 yards, a touchdown, a two-point conversion pass, and a rushing touchdown, as well as two throws that garnered penalties to help move the ball downfield. While the completion percentage is rough, his aggression throwing the ball downfield balanced that out, and he connected on enough passes to keep drives alive and win the game.
If you swapped fourth quarters, you basically have two complete blowouts (just swapping points, Packers would have won 42–14, and Saints would have won 30–0). In a season of ups and downs, last week was a lot of ups with some miserable downs. This week was a lot of downs with some unbelievable ups.
2. Love completed under 50% of his passes in the fourth quarter
While it’s no 0-for-6, 7-for-16 is under 50%, and on the day he finished 22-for-44. On the season, in fact, Love is hitting 53.1% of his throws, which ranks 33rd of 34 quarterbacks, ranked only ahead of Jets quarterback Zach Wilson’s 52.4% (Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, whose completion percentage on two passes is 0%, does not qualify).
For comparison, Josh Allen’s completion percentage in his first year as a starter, his rookie season, was 52.8%. In his first game, Aaron Rodgers went 81.8%, and his first season he finished at 63%. To me, Love’s inaccuracy is a yellow flag for now, not a red flag, because I believe there are some fairly understandable reasons for this.
Jordan Love has only played practice football for three years until now. Completion percentages in practice tend to be lower because the consequences for a turnover aren’t real. It would be reasonable for Love to become acclimated to these conditions and start off as a fairly loose version of himself. To that end, this is his first time doing all this stuff in a game with these receivers. He is not a rookie, but he is out there playing NFL football week to week for the first time ever. He is the roughest version of himself in this sense.
The Packers are in a learning phase. Jordan Love is figuring out how playing NFL quarterback works. Matt LaFleur is figuring out how his offense mixes with Love’s skillset in actual games. Love and his receivers are still figuring out one another. The time to try things, to be adventurous with the play sheet and attempted throws, is absolutely now. The Packers have a lot of work to do in polishing up how they want to execute the various concepts they run. There have been mistimed throws and instances of receivers not looking for a pass. There have also been some drops. There have also been risky throws made into tight coverage or thrown to difficult spots. There has also been some genuine, legitimate inaccuracy.
Am I making excuses for Jordan Love? Yes. That’s exactly what I’m doing. Another word for excuses is “reasons.” There are reasons Jordan Love has been inaccurate. We want him to be more accurate. He’s also not Zach Wilson.
3. Love threw his first interception Sunday
It’s kind of a relief, no? The first INT is out of the way, it came in the form of an arm punt on 3rd and 14 on the first drive of the second half. It was not a great way to start the second half, but it was also normal and okay. It’s a lot more innocuous than had his first pick been grabbed by A.J. Terrell last week and returned for a touchdown to give Atlanta the lead. Psychologically, you couldn’t have asked for a better outcome. The pick is out of the way, and it preceded the most triumphant performance of Love’s young NFL career.
The lack of turnover-worthy plays has been pretty impressive from Love, especially in consideration of his poor completion percentage. Love has managed to make throws that are the right kind of risky, that may land incomplete but aren’t likely to be turnovers. Love had several deep throws that missed the mark Sunday, but eventually found Romeo Doubs for a 30-yard completion that was a thing of beauty by quarterback and receiver.
4. The Packers receivers pecking order doesn’t matter
Unlike his predecessor, Love doesn’t have trust issues with his wide receivers. There have been drops, as well as throws to Malik Heath and Samori Toure, but overall the offense feels healthier for it. Through three games, the target breakdown is this:
Romeo Doubs — 20
Jayden Reed — 20
Luke Musgrave — 15
Dontayvion Wicks — 12
Put another way:
Rookies — 47
Non-rookies — 20
Love has no prejudice in who receives targets. And when targeting those four receivers, Love is 37–67 for 486 yards and 6 touchdowns. It is perhaps a blessing in disguise that presumed No. 1 receiver Christian Watson has yet to see the field. Watson’s addition to the offense has the potential to take the offense to another level, while reducing the target share for Samori Toure and Malik Heath (Love is 3–for-12 for 24 yards when targeting those two).
So far, there hasn’t hardly been any distinction between Doubs and Reed as far as who has been the top guy and who has been second. Wicks is the third priority by a decent share, but his presence the past two games has served to put pressure on defenses (Week 1 he was unsuccessfully targeted twice).
The dream, of course, is to develop a quartet of receivers who can rival the 2011 Packers receiving room, with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones, with Jermichael Finley presenting an athletic receiving threat from the tight end position. If that is indeed the blueprint, the Packers appear to be following it to a tee, with perhaps more athleticism and over-the-top speed than what that group presented.
5. Offensive line depth is winning so far
I noticed that without David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and eventually Zach Tom, the Packers allowed just one sack. Love faced more pressure than in previous weeks, but was able to stay upright, carrying nine times for 39 yards in addition to his 44 pass attempts and the sack.
Between Love’s elusiveness, LaFleur’s on-schedule offense, and the offensive line doing enough to give Love time, the Packers have weathered two critical injuries very well. If Tom is unable to go Thursday against a Detroit team that sacked Desmond Ridder seven times this week, the Packers line depth may finally be overwhelmed.
Still, the play of Rasheed Walker and Royce Newman deserves some praise for filling in at a well-enough level to allow the Packers offense to operate.
6. Rashan Gary is a defensive identity
Without Jaire Alexander on the field Sunday, Rashan Gary made his case to become the official face of the Packers’ defense. With 3 sacks in just 23 snaps 10 months after tearing his ACL, Gary was a huge part of containing the Saints on defense while the offense struggled early. While Gary’s snap count has been limited, his impact hasn’t been. He has looked dominant as a rusher, and against the immobile Derek Carr, that dominance paid dividends. Gary’s first two sacks came against Carr on third downs that forced New Orleans to punt, and his third sack came against Jameis Winston on a 1st-and-14 play that put New Orleans in 2nd and 22; Winston found Michael Thomas for 18 yards on the next play but New Orleans punted after an incompletion.
Gary’s development appears to be relatively unhindered by a potentially devastating injury. Gary should be next in line for a contract extension from the Packers, as he looks the part of a perrennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate so far. Gary has come a long way from his rookie season, but it’s important to remember Gary was selected as someone who would need development and refinement. Despite an injury that can change the trajectory of a career for the worse, Gary looks quite developed, quite refined.
7. The Saints were pretty injured
While the Packers overcame great adversity yesterday in being without Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Zach Tom, Devondre Campbell, and Jaire Alexander, it’s worth noting that they weren’t the only team out there missing key players. The Saints were without Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Foster Moreau, and Marcus Maye, and lost Derek Carr and Cesar Ruiz during the contest.
In comparing sufferings, the Packers and Saints could both make the case that their respective situations are worse, but for one, nobody cares, and for two, they basically balance out. It doesn’t unmake the comeback or lessen the significance of the win, but it should be acknowledged that it wasn’t just the Packers who were without some key components of their roster.
8. The first half sucked
Winning cures everything. The top takeaway, and the most important one, from Sunday’s win is the resilience and the improvement in the clutch that the Packers showed yesterday.
Unfortunately, they caught the first half on tape, too.
The wolfpack of Packers fans thirsting for blood encircled Joe Barry again on New Orleans’ first scoring drive of the game.
The game opened with a three-and-out, punctuated with a Kenny Clark sack. After that, Barry’s defense did the thing again, allowing the offense to move methodically downfield with scoring drives of 14 plays and 9 plays. It would have been worse if not for a holding penalty that preceded a Gary sack on one drive, and another drive being saved because the Saints returned a punt for a touchdown and the defense didn’t have to go out.
Keeping with the pattern, the offense was just as bad while Barry’s defense was doing this. The game began with a holding penalty and a false start, setting Love up with 1st and 25 to start things off. That drive ended with a comical fourth-down trick play attempt, in which an Emanuel Wilson pass back to Jordan Love landed short as a fumble, and Love did the splits while attempting a heave to Wicks, who, let it be said, was wide ass open.
The next drive was submarined by a false start on third and five. The drive after that was submarined by a hold on 2nd and 5, which preceded two Love incompletions, which preceded a punt return touchdown. The next drive ended with the only sack surrendered by the Packers, which took Green Bay from the Saints’ 27 all the way back to the 41. LaFleur again passed on a long field goal attempt.
And that was the first half. Self-inflicted errors littered the stat sheet in the form of penalties and poor execution at critical times.
The second half didn’t start much better, with an interception on the opening drive, a one-yard three-and-out on the next drive, and an exciting, 12-play, 82-yard drive that ended in a turnover on downs at the Saints’ 13.
Being a young team can be frustrating, and it definitely was for most of the game on Sunday. Still, overcoming those types of mistakes is a great sign, and hopefully the Packers’ coaching staff, in their exuberance over the comeback, doesn’t forget that they have a whole three quarters of piss to clean up.
9. LaFleur is still a young coach
It’s odd to think about, but Matt LaFleur is fairly new at this. He came in to a team loaded with veteran leadership, longstanding on the offensive side (Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, David Bakhtiari), and newly imported on the defensive side (Za’Darius Smith, Adrian Amos, Preston Smith). With all but two of those players off the roster now (and only one active Sunday), the Packers have the youngest team in the league. At just 43, Matt LaFleur has more and more company each year as the league trends toward younger, more innovative coaches. However, he has never done this before. He has never coached the youngest team in the league. For Packers fans, yesterday felt like so many performances of yesteryear. For Matt LaFleur, it did not feel familiar.
https://x.com/LilySZhao/status/1706049936960196669?s=20
Here’s the video. He’s not lying, it was hard for him not to be emotional!
Part of the growth of this young team is LaFleur’s growth as a head coach. Not that he didn’t learn plenty in his first four seasons in Green Bay, but let’s face it: There’s coaching, and then there’s coaching Aaron Rodgers. The newness of this year isn’t lost on him. That’s a good sign, I think, moving forward.
10. What if Grupe had made that field goal?
It’s an interesting hypothetical. The Packers would get the ball back with 65 seconds left and no timeouts. It’s sharply reminiscent of last week, against Atlanta. In that scenario, the offense utterly failed in execution and went four-and-out. This wasn’t that.
The Packers offense was rolling, having scored two consecutive touchdowns and converted on a two-point conversion to build momentum. They were at home. Jordan Love’s eyes were on fire. Things would have been different.
Yet, I tend to believe the missed field goal saved the day. You can just see it too clearly: Love taking over and leading the offense downfield, and perhaps getting the team into field goal range, only for the kicker to miss, probably because a false start penalty made the kick just a tick too tough. You can feel the lessons setting in: This is what happens when you shoot yourself in the foot; Just too undisciplined; It’s a young team; It’s a game of inches. Blah blah blah. Or maybe Love would have thrown an interception. Maybe a young receiver got too eager for yards-after-catch, and forgot to protect the ball. The offense was rolling, and yet there was so much that could have gone wrong. It’s true that football is a game of inches, where the slightest bounce, misstep, or jersey tug can completely change the outcome of the game. In Week 3, fortune smiled on the Packers. Every once in a while, that happens. You take it, say thanks, and move on.
Bonus thing: There’s a game in three days that could change the way we look at this season.
What’s more, the Packers have had a positive start through three weeks. You figured 1–2 or 2–1 was what was most realistic for a team with so many wrinkles to iron out.
However, the conversation around this team changes completely if they pull off a victory on Thursday Night Football against Detroit. The Packers story has been nice, but a win Thursday means that the Packers are in sole possession of first place through the first quarter of the season with two wins against what appear to be quality opponents, whose lone loss came on a last-minute field goal. Yes, the team is young and still figuring out how to compete and how to win, but they’re also competing, and they’re also winning, and the NFC North is wide open.
So far, the vibe this season has largely been “we’re just here to have fun.” That ends with a win Thursday. There’s a long way to go in the season, and ultimately four games doesn’t mean much. But if the Packers beat the Lions, they will earn themselves a bit of pressure, and a new chapter of this fun season will begin.